Failure Analysis & Prognostic Technology Means Moving to the 100% Domain, 100% Equipment or Product Reliability, 100% Availability 100% of the Time

When equipment is too expensive and too important to fail, we offer prognostic technology, providing 100% Measured reliability and 100% Availability

After completing failure analysis and root-cause failure analysis on complex systems such as satellites, spacecraft, missiles and launch vehicles, we discovered the single cause of premature equipment/product failures and developed and used the technology to identify the products and equipment that would fail prematurely. Eliminating premature equipment failures allows the production of equipment and products with 100% (measured) reliability. Unlike most complex systems that use reliability analysis engineering that provides results that are unrelated to the reliability of the equipment it is is calculated from, a measured reliability identifies the usable life of a specific unit.

Premature equipment failures occur unchecked on complex systems such as rockets, missiles, spacecraft and satellites and are responsible for all major failures since the space program began over 50 years ago. Surprise equipment failures on systems older than one year also occur that are responsible for removing space assets that are critical the our nations defense as well as advancements in science, navigation, communications and earth resource monitoring. 

When equipment has 100% reliability, it diminishes the need for completing such activities as failure analysis and root cause analysis because fewer equipment first-time equipment failures will occur. Our reliability measuring technology allows the prevention of first-time failures on large, complex and expensive systems and equipment that are too expensive and too important to fail. Without a failure, there is no need to conduct a failure analysis making failure analysis and root cause analysis obsolete. In the event a failure does occur, a prognostic analysis will identify the information that was overlooked and/or misinterpreted that would have prevented a failure from occurring.

$29M Fleet Ballistic Missile Submarine-Launched Trident II D5 ICBM Navigation Subsystem Failure in 2003 Preventable using our 21st Century Reliability Measuring Technology

Although our name reflects an expertize in defining the cause of product/equipment failures, using this expertise we took the next logical step for improving end-product/equipment reliability by developing the technology for identifying the products or equipment that will fail prematurely allowing the production of 100% reliable products.

We use prognostic algorithms for illustrating accelerating aging and proactive diagnostics and active reasoning to identify the early signs of premature failure, eliminating the causes of premature product failures. Since product reliability is dominated by premature failures, prognostic technology provides 100% reliability, 100% of the time. Accelereated aging is often present in normal appearing data from fully functional equipment. The presence of accelerated aging in equipment test data has gone unrecognized for over 50 years.

After using our prognostic algorithms to identify accelerated aging and predict product failures and achieving 100% accuracy, we now license our prognostic technology and we will complete prognostic analysis for measuring reliability on equipment and products of all kinds including satellites, spacecraft, missiles and launch vehicles upgrading electrical and electro-mechanical equipment, product production and vehicles of all types to 100% reliability.

Prognostic algorithms measures product or equipment reliability, invasively prior to, during and/or after production, in-the-field using test data that is already recorded in aerospace and defense industries and added to products or equipment as done in the computer industry if 100% reliability is desired.

A prognostic analysis completed prior to use will identify the products that will fail prematurely. A prognostic analysis completed after a product has failed will identify the information that was present that was ignored, indictating that the unit would fail prematurely.

Just as diagnostic activities such as data trending, equipment troubleshooting, failure analysis and root cause analysis to identify past behavior with great certainty, prognostic activities identify future product behavior with great certainty preventing the first product failure eliminating the need for future diagnostic activities after catastrophic failure.

Each equipment/product reliability measurement uses product or equipment analog data (in the defense and aerosdpace industry, telemetry) or analog data from equipment internal test points. This data is performance related infoermation which is used during product testing to measure equipment performance.

Prognostic Process for 100% Reliability and 100%Availability  

Products and equipment will always fail prematurely, as long as testing is used to increase reliability. Testing alone is inadequate  to improve reliability even when used in conjuction with quality improvement programs because during all testing, only only equipment/product performance is measured and product performance is unrelated to short-term or long-term reliability.

A prognostic analysis converts product analog performance data (including telemetry) into product reliabililty information by identifying the presence of any accelerated aging. If accelerated aging is present in data/telemetry or analog performance information of any type, the product will fail prematurely with 100% certainty.

All product/equipment reliability is dominated by premature failures occurring within one year of use (an infant mortality failure). Prognostic technology simply leverages the presence of accelerated aging that precedes all product failures by as much as a full year. A prognostic analysis illustrates accelerated aging that is often present in normal appearing information from products that perform normally but will fail prematurely with 100% certainty.

The use of prognostic technology brings 100% certainty to product and equipment reliability and diminishes the need for statistical reliability calculated in many applications/industries through the use of reliability analysis engineering, defined in documents such as Mil Hdbk 217 and many others.

For serviceable equipment, we achieve 6-9s (99.9999%) availability. For non-serviceable equipment, located in remote or unaccessible locations such as space or the artic environments, we provide equipment with near perfect reliability. Our technology allows reliability to be measured before delivery/shipping rather than predicted. We have a proven track record across many industries.

$100M Award Winning INTELSAT 7 & 7A, Commercial, Geostationary C, Ku-Band Communication Satellites Were Designed with Prognostic Technolgy in 1988

Prognostic technology includes proactive diagnostics, active reasoning and data-driven and model-based prognostic algorithms for completing a prognostic (forensic) analysis. It is the first engineering discipline for designing complex systems to prevent catastrophic equipment failures from occurring, rather than respond to a system failure after it occurs and hope to stop future ones.

Just as diagnostic technology (e.g. data trending, troubleshooting, failure analysis, root cause analysis etc.) defines past product behavior with great certainty, a prognostic technology defines future product behavior with great certainty. A prognostic analysis completed before use will identify the actions necessary to avoid a product/system failure. A prognostic analysis completed after a product failure, identifies the information that was missed/misdiagnosed that if interpreted properly, would have identified an upcoming product failure.

Our breakthrough technology is a gamechanger for companies that want to produce equipment and products with 100% reliability, 100% of the time.

To accomplish this, we offer an invasive, forensic analysis called prognostics. A prognostic analysis identifies the early signs of premature aging/failure in individual units after all esting/certification is completed.

In some industries, the interface with the products and equipment already exists. We share this information (in aerospace and defense industry its called telemetry) to measure equipment and product reliability by identifying the early signs of premature aging/failure present in normal appearing information from equipment that is functioning normally, but will fail when used initially.

Equipment and products that fail after test from an infant mortality failure must have functioned completely normally during certification and/or acceptance testing. A prognostic analysis illustrates the early signs of premature aging/failure for identification by personnel trained to identify them from among other normal occurring behavior.

Accelerated aging has not been leveraged in the past to provide 100% reliability because of the highly specialized training and education in DC, fixed-power, linear and non-linear circuit analysis necessary to both illustrate and discriminate it from other normal occurring behavior is not normally acquired in any industry.

Simple Example of Acceleerated Aging in Product/Equipment Operational Information (telemetry)

A prognostic analysis completed before product delivery will identify products and equipment that will fail in the near future. A prognostic analysis completed on a units after failure will identify when the early signs of premature aging/failure were initiated in the factory allowing the identification of personnel and/or organizations requiring training in prognostic technology. 

 

$18K Force Computer High-Reliability (>99.999%) Embedded Telecommunications Servers for Verizon, Avaya & AT&T with Prognostic Technology

Our prognostic analysis will identify the equipment and products after certification or factory acceptance testing that will fail within one year allowing companies to decide whether to replace them for scrapping, shipping only products with near perfect reliability.

We advance equipment/product reliability and and thus availability of electrical and electro-mechanical products of all kinds, bringing 21st century forensic analysis to all industries.

We offer prognostic technology as a direct result of completing failure analysis on electrical and mechanical products across the broad spectrum of industries. Our results improve equipment/products reliability by increasing reliability and stopping infant mortality failures.

Our prognostic technology provides the ultra-high reliability only available in the past from extreme cost and complexity.

Through the decades of research conducted at industries and academic institutions around the United States, Failure Analysis has redefined the cause of electronic, electro-mechanical parts/system, material and structural failures by redefining the why, when and how these fail.

Thirty years ago, we pioneered prognostic analysis on the on-orbit U.S. Air Force Global Positioning System (GPS) Block I satellites. We predicted the on-board rubidium atomic frequency standard failures that were going to fail during critica, multi-services system-wide testing based on satellite S-Band equipment telemetry and GPS Kalman filter data across 6 GPS satellites. The accelerated aging present in data was identified and published in 10 years of Boeing monthly and quarterly test reports provided to the U.S. Air Force GPS Program Office personnel from 1978 through 1988.

The prognostic analysis allowed the identification of underperforming and unreliable rubidium atomic frequency standards key to the accuracy of the entire GPS constellation. Due to the prognostic analysis, the new GPS, out perform both Navy, TIMATION and TRANSIT satellite-based navigation systems and win funding by the DOD.

a prognostic analysis allowed GPS satellites to perform at their best and win early acceptance, eliminating the need for 12 more Block II test and evaluation satellites and 12 more Atlas launch vehicles, moving the initial  operational capability (IOC) up by 8 years saving the U.S. Air Force $1,000,000,000.00.

 The Presence of Accelerated Aging was Discovered on 12 $55M Boeing/U.S. Air Force GPS Block I Ssatellites in 1980

The 40 $83M Boeing/U.S. Air Force GPS Block II & IIA Satellites were  Designed in 1982 based on Results of Prognostic Analysis

Today, prognostic technology is used in the space, high-reliability telecommunications computer servers, nuclear power, commercial and military aircraft, air conditioning and refrigeration industries to identify accelerated aging and the information that precedes catastrophic equipment and product failures.

For complex servicable systems, prognostic technology  replaces routine maintenance programs with condition-based maitenance (CBM), leveraging the  "if it's not broke, don't fix it" philosophy, lowering life-cycle cost.

Prognostic technology is the next logical step in  improving equipment reliability. Its low cost, proven across industry lines.

Failure Analysis is the first to offer an invasive, reliability measuring technology for producing equipment, products and vehicles with near perfect relaibility. In aerospace and defense, reliability is calculated based on methods defined in reliability analysis.

After reliability analysis is used to predict the liklihood of a premature failure, companies across all industries can now measure equipment and vehicle reliability at the factory to ensure customers will receive only equipment and products that will function for at least the next year with 100% reliability.